{"id":292,"date":"2015-04-16T19:40:51","date_gmt":"2015-04-16T11:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xxxsola.org\/?p=292"},"modified":"2015-04-23T11:11:23","modified_gmt":"2015-04-23T03:11:23","slug":"%e3%80%90%e8%bd%ac%e8%87%aa%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e7%bd%91%e3%80%91%e4%b8%9c%e6%96%b9%e9%9a%8f%e6%9c%ba%e8%bf%87%e7%a8%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/292.html","title":{"rendered":"[\u79d1\u5b66\u7f51]\u4e1c\u65b9\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e00\u76f4\u5bf9\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u548cMCMC \u8fc7\u7a0b\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u67e5\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u4e1c\u65b9\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/p>\n

\u5927\u5c0f\u59d0\u857e\u7c73\u6700\u559c\u6b22B\u578b\u8840\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5973\u4ec6\u957f\u54b2\u591c\u6bcf\u5929\u4e00\u65e9\u4f1a\u5230\u91ce\u5916\u641c\u96c6\u65b0\u9c9c\u7684\u8840\u6db2\u3002\u4ece\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u96c6\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u8840\u6db2\u3002\u54b2\u591c\u6bcf\u5929\u91c7\u96c6\u5230\u82e5\u5e72\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8840\u6db2\u540e\u8fd4\u56de\u7ea2\u9b54\u9986\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2dB\u578b\u8840\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u857e\u7c73\u6bcf\u5929\u5bf9B\u578b\u8840\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u662f\u968f\u5fc3\u60c5\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u670d\u4ece\u5747\u503c\u4e3a\u4e00\u7684\u6307\u6570\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u54b2\u591c\u91c7\u96c6\u5230\u7684B\u578b\u8840\u4e0d\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u857e\u7c73\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u54b2\u591c\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u8bad\u65a5\u3002\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u8bad\u65a5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u54b2\u591c\u4f1a\u591a\u91c7\u96c6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8840\u6db2\u3002\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u5929B\u578b\u8840\u7684\u6d88\u8017\u91cf\u4e0d\u5230\u91c7\u96c6\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u54b2\u591c\u4f1a\u5c11\u91c7\u96c6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8840\u6db2\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u91c7\u96c6\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u76f8\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bf7\u95ee\u5728\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u54b2\u591c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5929\u8981\u91c7\u96c6\u51e0\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8840\u6db2\uff1f<\/li>\n
  2. \u54b2\u591c\u53d7\u5230\u8bad\u65a5\u7684\u5929\u6570\u5360\u591a\u5c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1f\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u5fc3\u91cc\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7528\u7eaf\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5b66\u8fc7\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u7684\u7f16\u7a0b\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u987a\u4fbf\u5c31\u7528R\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u628a\u5b83\u89e3\u4e86\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd8\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u6709\u6570\u5b66\u6559\u597d\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u80fd\u5e2e\u5fd9\u7ed9\u51fa\u7eaf\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u89e3\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u6839\u636e\u5df2\u77e5\u6761\u4ef6\u53ef\u77e5: \u857e\u7c73\u5bf9\u8840\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u670d\u4ece\u5747\u503c\u4e3a1\u7684\u6307\u6570\u5206\u5e03\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe10000\u5929\u7684\u8840\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n

    R \u7f16\u5199\u4ee3\u7801\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a
    \neat_blood <- rexp(10000,rate=1)
    \n#\u521d\u59cb\u91c7\u96c6\u8840\u6db2\u7684\u4eba\u6570
    \nN=6
    \n#\u83b7\u5f97B\u578b\u8840\u91cf
    \nB_blood <- N *1\/4
    \n#\u521d\u59cb\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u9a82:
    \nsad <- F
    \n#\u7edf\u8ba1\u88ab\u9a82\u6b21\u6570
    \nsadtimes <- 0
    \n#\u7edf\u8ba110000\u5929\u7684\u91c7\u8840\u4eba\u6570
    \nnum_person <- NULL
    \n#\u968f\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u59cb
    \nfor (i in 1:length(eat_blood)) {
    \n#\u4f9d\u636e\u6761\u4ef6
    \n　　if (B_blood < eat_blood[i]) {
    \n　　　　N <- N+1
    \n　　　　sad = T
    \n　　　　sadtimes <- sadtimes +1
    \n　　}
    \n　　else {
    \n　　　　if (eat_blood[i] < 1\/2 * B_blood) {
    \n　　　　　　N <- N-1
    \n　　　　　　sad=F
    \n　　　　}
    \n　　　　else {
    \n　　　　　　sad =F
    \n　　　　}
    \n　　}
    \n　　B_blood <- 1\/4*N
    \n　　num_person <- c(num_person,N)
    \n}
    \nprint(sadtimes\/length(eat_blood))
    \nplot(num_person,type=’l’,col=blue)<\/p>\n

    \"205345orrozewxbssaollr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    10000\u6b21\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6240\u91c7\u96c6\u8840\u7684\u4eba\u56fe\u793a
    \n#\u91c7\u8840\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c
    \nsummary(num_person)
    \nN=4.088<\/span>
    \n#\u88ab\u8d23\u9a82\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b
    \nprint(sadtimes\/length(eat_blood))
    \n#0.386<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8f6c\u81ea\uff1ahttp:\/\/blog.sciencenet.cn\/blog-846085-651473.html<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u4e00\u76f4\u5bf9\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u548cMCMC \u8fc7\u7a0b\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u67e5\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a \u4e1c\u65b9\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b \u5927\u5c0f\u59d0\u857e\u7c73\u6700 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=292"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xxxsola.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}